The H-1B cap lottery as applicants have known it for years is being replaced. Under a DHS final rule published December 29, 2025 and effective February 27, 2026, USCIS will use a weighted selection process based on wage level — and it is set to apply to the FY 2027 registration period that runs in March 2026.
How the new system works. Instead of giving every registration an equal single chance, the new process enters each beneficiary into the selection pool a number of times tied to the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) wage level their offered salary meets for the relevant occupation and location:
- Wage Level IV — entered 4 times
- Wage Level III — entered 3 times
- Wage Level II — entered 2 times
- Wage Level I — entered 1 time
When USCIS receives more registrations than the cap allows, it conducts a weighted random selection across these entries. Based on historical data cited by DHS, the agency estimates that Level IV positions could have roughly a 61% selection probability, while Level I positions drop to about 15%. DHS says the goal is to “prioritize the allocation of visas to higher-skilled and higher-paid aliens” to protect the wages and job opportunities of American workers.
Who wins and who loses. The change tilts the lottery toward higher-paid, more experienced candidates and away from entry-level roles — which disproportionately affects recent graduates, early-career professionals, and lower-wage geographic markets. Employers who want to maximize their candidates’ odds will need to review proffered wages against the applicable wage levels well before registration opens.
Context. This wage-weighting rule arrives alongside other major H-1B developments, including the September 2025 presidential proclamation imposing a $100,000 fee on certain new H-1B petitions for workers entering from abroad — a measure now facing federal court challenges. Together, these changes signal a structural shift toward favoring higher-wage H-1B employment.
What to do before the next cap season. Employers and beneficiaries should map each prospective registration to its wage level, document the basis for the offered wage, and consider whether adjusting job duties or compensation could move a candidate into a higher level. Confirm all details against the official rule before relying on them.
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